AGP Executive Report

Fertiliser Trade Windfall: A Greenpeace investigation says Russian urea producers earned about £5m a day from March–May exports after the Strait of Hormuz disruption, with urea prices nearly doubling and extra revenues flowing into the UK and EU. Belarus–Russia Food Compliance: Rosselkhoznadzor blocked a Belarusian pork-offal shipment from Veles-Mit LLC on the Belarus–Russia border, citing mismatched production-site documents and earlier EAEU rule breaches. Belarus–Pakistan Industrial Push: Belarus’s ambassador to Pakistan met Commerce Minister Jam Kamal Khan ahead of the Pakistan–Belarus Joint Ministerial Commission, focusing on trade, investment, engineering goods, and secure local-currency payment mechanisms. EAEU Connectivity for Industry: Belarusian Railways is scaling the “Slavic Caravan” block-train corridor to Central Asia, with the first train reaching Uzbekistan in under six days and a second service expanding toward Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. BRICS Culture Track (Partner Role for Belarus): The BRICS Culture Ministers’ Meeting in Bhopal adopted the Bhopal Declaration, calling for cooperation in cultural and creative industries and digital market access, with Belarus participating as a partner. Security Watch on the Belarus Border: Ukraine’s border service says there’s been no buildup of a strike force toward Ukraine from Belarus, while warning Russia is still pressuring Minsk to get more involved.

Belarus Border Watch: Ukraine’s border guards say there’s been no buildup of a Russian strike force on Belarusian territory, while warning Russia keeps pressuring Minsk to get more involved in the war. Trade Finance for Industry: Belarus and Pakistan are pushing a local-currency payment mechanism and other secure financial arrangements ahead of the next Pakistan–Belarus Joint Ministerial Commission, aiming to boost trade, investment and industrial cooperation. Food Industry Under Scrutiny: Russia’s Rosselkhoznadzor blocked a large Belarusian shipment of pork offal and endocrine-enzyme raw materials from Veles-Mit LLC, citing mismatches in production-site documents and previously imposed restrictions. Logistics for Exports: A new “Slavic Caravan” block-train service is cutting Belarus–Central Asia transit times, with the first train reaching Uzbekistan in under six days and a second train departing from Orsha-Vostochnaya to expand the corridor toward Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Regional Integration: EAEU heads of government met in Kyrgyzstan, with Belarus’s Alexander Turchin discussing investment projects and cooperation as integration deepens. BRICS Culture Track: Belarus joined partner participation in the BRICS Culture Ministers’ meeting in Bhopal, where the Bhopal Declaration set a roadmap for cultural and creative industries and digital market access.

Belarus–Pakistan Trade Push: Belarus’ ambassador Andrei Metelitsa met Pakistan’s commerce minister Jam Kamal Khan ahead of the Pakistan–Belarus Joint Ministerial Commission, agreeing to deepen trade, investment and industrial cooperation, including consultations on secure payment options such as local-currency settlements. Food Industry Compliance Clash: Russia’s Rosselkhoznadzor blocked imports from Belarusian Veles-Mit LLC after document and labeling mismatches, returning a shipment of pork offal and endocrine-enzyme raw materials; the firm had already faced temporary restrictions. EAEU Integration for Industry & Trade: EAEU leaders met in Kyrgyzstan as the bloc targets EAEU trade surpassing $100bn in 2026 and signs deals on e-commerce, a unified financial market, and mutual recognition of academic titles—aimed at cutting non-tariff barriers and boosting cross-border business. Logistics Corridor to Central Asia: Belarusian Railways’ “Slavic Caravan” is moving from pilot to regular service, with block trains cutting transit times and carrying timber, chemicals and food toward Uzbekistan and beyond. Mining Safety: Belarus’ Investigative Committee opened a criminal case after a Belaruskali worker died from an electric shock during rewiring at an underground mine section. Rural Retail Pressure: Lukashenka cited Belkaapsayuz’s steep losses and widespread violations in rural outlets, demanding fixes to expired and spoiled goods and stronger accountability.

Belarus-EAEU Integration: At the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council in Cholpon-Ata, Belarus PM Alexander Turchin met counterparts including Armenia’s Nikol Pashinyan and Kyrgyzstan’s Sadyr Japarov, with leaders pushing industrial, agro-industrial and food-security cooperation alongside digital trade and unified market steps. EAEU Trade Push: The bloc is on track to top $100bn in intra-EAEU trade in 2026 as it shifts focus toward digital integration and removing non-tariff barriers. Belarus Agriculture & Power Resilience: Lukashenka ordered farmland to return to crop rotation and said “negligent” officials could be used in battalion tactical groups for the harvest; meanwhile, a thunderstorm left 438 Belarus settlements without power, with restoration crews prioritizing agricultural enterprises. Mining Safety: Belarus’ Investigative Committee opened a criminal case after a Belaruskali worker died from an electric shock during underground electrical rewiring. Security Tech: Belarusian radar producer KB Radar is finishing Rodnik-3D low-altitude drone-detection stations, aimed at protecting critical infrastructure and working alongside electronic warfare. Baltics Risk Signal: Lithuania warned Russia may stage false-flag attacks on Baltic critical infrastructure using components from Ukrainian drones—an issue that also feeds into regional energy and logistics planning. EAEU-UAE Deal: The EAEU and UAE partnership agreement is set to enter into force on Oct 6, 2026, with preferential access for major agricultural goods. Belarus-Trade Finance: Pakistan and Belarus agreed to consult on secure payment mechanisms, including local-currency settlements, to boost bilateral trade.

Trade Finance: Belarus and Pakistan agreed to consult on secure, mutually acceptable payment mechanisms, including local-currency settlements, to support bilateral trade ahead of the Pakistan–Belarus Joint Ministerial Commission. Logistics & Digital Permits: Tajikistan and Belarus discussed transport digitalization in Brest, including modern management platforms and an electronic system for exchanging international road transport permits to cut paperwork and human error. EAEU Priorities: Kazakhstan’s EAEU chairmanship focus—AI development, logistics hubs, industry and agriculture digitalization, and barrier-free trade—was echoed in talks that also covered food security and market access. Belarus Fuel Lifeline: With Russian refining hit by Ukrainian drone strikes, Belarus shipped record gasoline and diesel volumes to Russia in July, underscoring how Minsk’s refining capacity is now propping up Moscow’s supply. Agriculture Support: Belarus approved a pilot to procure crop protection products with plant growth-regulating properties for winter rapeseed via the Belarusian Universal Commodity Exchange or direct sourcing, plus a separate pilot to partially compensate food exporters’ logistics costs to 55 countries. Cyber & Defense Industry: A Belarusian behind the Ransom Cartel ransomware-as-a-service operation was sentenced to 16 years in the US, while Belarus’ Radar Design Bureau reported trials of a new GPS-jamming transmitter. Regional Security Spillover: Lithuania warned Russia may use reconstructed Ukrainian drones for false-flag attacks on Baltic critical infrastructure, as border guards also uncovered another unfinished tunnel from Belarus.

Belarus–Russia Fuel Lifeline: With Ukrainian drone strikes disrupting Russian refining, Belarus shipped record gasoline and diesel to Russia in July—gasoline deliveries rose 13% to 212,000 tonnes and diesel doubled to 162,000 tonnes, keeping Moscow’s stations supplied. Agri Procurement Pilot: The Council of Ministers approved a pilot to procure crop protection products with plant growth-regulating properties for winter rapeseed, running to Oct. 31, 2026, via the Belarusian Universal Commodity Exchange or direct sourcing. Export Support for Food: A separate pilot will partially compensate Belarusian food exporters’ transport and logistics costs for shipments to “far arc” countries in the second half of 2026, with higher support for butter/cheese/baby food (50%) and lower rates for poultry and dairy inputs (30%). Industrial Logistics: Wildberries says its Great Stone logistics complex is on schedule (and even ahead), rejecting claims it will move main hubs outside Russia. Trade Routes: The “Slavic Caravan” freight train service from Belarus to Uzbekistan has arrived, covering 3,822 km in a 51-car set. Security Tech: Radar Design Bureau is trialing a new electronic warfare jamming transmitter, Tarpan, aimed at disrupting satellite navigation up to 50 km. School Feeding Update: New rules for school meals start Sept. 1, standardizing one-meal formats and raising state spending norms by 5% with annual indexing to retail food prices.

Belarus–Russia Fuel Flows: Rail shipments of gasoline and diesel from Belarus to Russia hit new monthly highs in July as Russian refinery outages bite harder, with Belarus sending 212,000 tonnes of gasoline (+13% vs June) and 162,000 tonnes of diesel (double), helping stabilize Russian retail supply. Great Stone Logistics Push: Wildberries is fast-tracking a new logistics center at Belarus’ Great Stone Industrial Park near Minsk, with first sections already operating and more capacity ramping up; the company also denies claims it will move its main hubs outside Russia. China Rail Link: Great Stone’s rail terminal is expected to receive its first China train in October, with full completion targeted for 2028—aimed at boosting industrial and export logistics. Food Export Support: Belarus will pilot partial compensation for transport and logistics costs for food exports to “far arc” destinations in 2H 2026/2027, with higher support for dairy and baby food. Corruption Case in Oil Sector: A Vitsyebsk court sentenced a deputy chief engineer at a Belarus oil refinery to 13 years for bribery tied to procurement and falsified technical documentation. Pharma Investment: A Belarus-linked group plans a ~$10m eye-drop manufacturing plant, backed by a new pharmaceutical company with ownership tied to a senior medical-center official’s family. Agriculture Media Fact-Check: Belarusian state media’s “1.8-fold” harvest yield claim was flagged as misleading—official figures refer to a 1.8 centner/ha increase, not a fold change. Trade Snapshot: Belarus bought $72m worth of Russian chocolate in H1 2026, up 32% year-on-year, making it Russia’s second-largest chocolate export destination.

Fuel & Logistics: Reuters reports Belarus boosted rail fuel shipments to Russia in July as Russian refinery outages from Ukrainian drone strikes tightened supply—gasoline deliveries rose 13% to 212,000 tons and diesel doubled to 162,000 tons, with Belarus supplying both its refineries’ output. E-commerce Infrastructure: Wildberries denies claims it will move key logistics hubs out of Russia, saying construction and ramp-up continue as planned; it also says a Minsk-area warehouse near Great Stone is already in phased capacity expansion. Industrial Park Trade Links: Great Stone says Chinese projects are still expanding despite post-2022 slowdown, and its rail terminal is set to receive the first China train in October, with full completion later. Agribusiness Support: Belarus will partially compensate food exporters’ transport and logistics costs for “far arc” destinations in 2027 (pilot starting in late 2026), with higher support for dairy and baby food. Anti-Corruption in Energy: A Vitsyebsk court sentenced a deputy chief engineer at a Belarus oil refinery to 13 years for bribery tied to falsifying procurement/technical documentation. Market Watch: Belarus’ new car sales hit a July high for 2026, driven by locally produced models and a rebound in electric vehicle sales.

Belarus Logistics & Trade: Minsk’s business lobby is urging the Economy Ministry to coordinate a response to Ukrainian drone strikes hitting Wildberries warehouses in Russia, warning that goods tied to up to 22,000 Belarusian sellers are at risk and asking for action “at the highest level,” including via diplomatic channels. Border Security: Ukraine says the threat from Belarus becomes “real” only if provocations target the border directly, while it reports engineering obstacles, surveillance upgrades, and reinforced minefields along the Ukrainian-Belarusian line. Rail & Mobility: Belarusian Railways will adjust schedules on the Minsk–Orsha line in two repair phases (Aug 10–13 and Aug 17–20), with some trains rerouted or suspended. Agri Procurement Rules: Belkaapsayuz tightened purchases from private household plots, requiring sellers to show an ID and proof of ownership for lots over one tonne to curb small-scale resellers. Tech & Skills: Belarus plans an “Academy of Intellectual Technologies” focused on applied research and industry-linked training, with students assigned to companies from the start. Defense Posture: Belarus is expanding the 37th Air Assault Brigade near the Ukraine border into a larger, more self-sufficient force with added maneuver, artillery, air defense, and support elements.

Belarus Education & Skills: Lukashenka is pushing the creation of an “Academy of Intellectual Technologies,” while also warning it should stay applied and useful, not a second track for pure research; the plan includes engineering, natural sciences and digital tech, with students assigned to companies and a goal of spawning small businesses around big employers. Agribusiness Procurement Rules: Belkaapsayuz tightened purchases of agricultural produce from the public, requiring sellers to show an ID and proof they own a household plot for lots over one tonne—aimed at blocking small-scale resellers. Training for Industry: NADF launched mechanisation training for 4,000 tractor operators and mechanics (10 days, with John Deere involvement), building a certified workforce for farm modernization. Logistics & Transport: Belarusian Railways will adjust schedules on the Minsk–Orsha line in two repair phases (Aug 10–13 and Aug 17–20), with some services suspended or shortened. Cross-border Business Risk: Belarusian entrepreneurs are urging the Economy Ministry to respond to Wildberries warehouse strikes in Russia, saying up to 22,000 Belarusian entities’ goods are stored there and sellers lack direct control over safekeeping. Regional Energy Pressure: Europe’s drought is hitting hydropower and river transport; the Rhine is at record-low levels, threatening barge freight capacity that matters for Belarus-linked trade corridors. Defense Posture: Belarus is expanding the 37th Air Assault Brigade near Ukraine with added maneuver, artillery, air defense and support units, aiming for a more self-sufficient mobile reserve.

Border Operations: Estonia sent its third rotating police and border guard unit to Latvia’s border with Belarus to curb illegal crossings, with more rotations planned through September. EAEU Industry Talks: Russia’s PM Mikhail Mishustin is set to visit Kyrgyzstan for an Eurasian Economic Union government council where Belarus is expected to discuss removing trade barriers and joint projects in industry and digitalization. Belarus Growth Watch: Belarus GDP rose 3% in Q2 (after -0.2% in Q1), helped by stronger investment and consumption; retail turnover grew, with car sales surging on lending. Belarus–Venezuela Manufacturing: Belarus expects to restart three joint manufacturing facilities in Venezuela after sanctions and other disruptions paused production, with contract steps underway following Venezuelan visits. Rail Modernization: Belarusian Railways plans 30 new passenger carriages and 100 freight wagons in 2026, plus continued upgrades to tracks, signaling, and communications. Emergency Response: Lukashenka received a report on storm damage in Hrodna and other regions, including crop losses and flooded streets, with power restored to most affected areas within 12 hours. Military Posture: Belarus began forming a new 37th airborne assault brigade near Gomel, adding to its rapid-response forces close to Ukraine.

School Infrastructure & Procurement: Belarus will buy 104 school buses from the national budget for the 2026/27 academic year, alongside plans for new schools, repairs, and upgrades to cafeterias and sports facilities, with special attention to supplies and support for children from large and low-income families. Macroeconomy: The National Bank says GDP grew 3% year-on-year in Q2 (after a 0.2% Q1 dip), helped by stronger fixed investment (+10% in Q2) and faster retail growth, including a surge in car sales. Rail & Logistics: Belarusian Railways plans 30 new passenger carriages and 100 freight wagons in 2026, with the first 15 passenger units for the Minsk–Moscow route by Sept. 1, while expanding digital ticketing and cross-border services. Trade Corridors: The “Slavic Caravan” freight train launched from Orsha-East to Uzbekistan via Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, aiming to cut delivery to 5–7 days and set up an intermodal logistics center at Orsha by end-2026. Industrial Cooperation Abroad: Belarus expects to resume operations at three joint manufacturing facilities in Venezuela, with contracts and visits tied to agricultural machinery production plans. Border & Security Spillover: Lithuania says it found 10 tunnels this year and will buy tunnel-detection technology after a Polish trial; Belarus also announced a new 37th airborne assault brigade near Gomel, underscoring how security pressures keep shaping regional industry and transport planning.

Belarus Rail & logistics: Belarusian Railways says it will buy 30 new passenger carriages and 100 freight wagons in 2026, with the first 15 passenger units due by Sept. 1 for the Minsk–Moscow route, while also continuing track, signaling and communications upgrades. Trade corridors: The “Slavic Caravan” freight train has launched its first run from Orsha-East to Uzbekistan, aiming to cut delivery times to about 5–7 days and, by end-2026, Belarus plans an intermodal logistics center at Orsha to serve Uzbekistan cargo flows. Border infrastructure: Lithuania will buy tunnel-detection technology for the Belarus border after equipment temporarily supplied by Poland helped locate an underground passage; officials say more than ten attempts were detected and the tunnels were destroyed or filled in. Security posture: Belarus is forming a new 37th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade near Gomel, about 40 km from Ukraine, with one battalion already formed and more combat-support, artillery, air defense and reconnaissance units planned through 2026. Energy & industry spillovers: Russia’s fuel export bans are extended to Jan. 31, 2027, and Kyrgyzstan is turning to imports including by rail from Belarus as regional supply tightens.

Border Security & Military Industry: Belarus is creating the 37th Separate Air Assault Brigade near Gomel, about 40 km from Ukraine. One battalion is already formed, with more units (artillery, air defense, reconnaissance and a second battalion) planned for 2026, and a transfer to a permanent base expected in 2027. Cross-Border Logistics: Belarusian Railway launched the “Slavic Caravan” freight train to Uzbekistan via Orsha-East, aiming to cut delivery times to 5–7 days and by end-2026 plan an intermodal logistics center at Orsha. Fuel & Refining Supply Chains: Russia extended gasoline and diesel export bans until early 2027 as drone strikes disrupt refineries; the wider scramble is pulling in imports, including gasoline shipments from Belarus and even Morocco. E-commerce Under Fire: Wildberries says Ukrainian drone attacks on its warehouses have caused billions in losses for entrepreneurs across Belarus, Central Asia and beyond, while the company reports daily security upgrades. Trade & Agriculture Risk: Armenia’s apricot exports remain heavily dependent on Russia (about 84% of export revenue), with Belarus listed as a smaller but notable destination. Border Tech Procurement: Lithuania plans to buy tunnel-detection technology for its Belarus border after equipment supplied by Poland helped locate an underground passage.

Rail Freight: Belarusian Railway launched the “Slavic Caravan” through freight train to Uzbekistan, departing Orsha-East and running twice a month via Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan; it will carry woodworking products, food and animal feed, cutting delivery from up to two months to about 5–7 days, and Belarus plans an intermodal logistics center at Orsha station by end-2026. E-commerce & Logistics Under Fire: Wildberries says Ukrainian drone attacks on its warehouses have triggered billions in losses for entrepreneurs across Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Uzbekistan and China, while the company reports daily upgrades to security and fire safety, including its own fire brigades. Energy Supply Pressure: Russia is importing about 30,000 tons of AI-92 gasoline from Morocco via Murmansk to stabilize domestic fuel after refinery disruptions, with Belarus and Kazakhstan also cited as key supply sources. Agriculture & Fertilizer Risk: Commentary highlights how Strait of Hormuz disruptions can ripple into fertilizer flows, with Belarus sanctions and other export limits adding pressure to potassium and food supply chains. Border & Migration Spillover: Reports on Ceuta’s sudden surge show how border disruptions can quickly overwhelm logistics and security capacity—an issue that also feeds into regional trade and transport planning.

E-commerce Under Fire: Wildberries founder Tatiana Kim says Ukrainian drone attacks on the company’s logistics network are hitting “hundreds of millions” across 10 countries, with entrepreneurs in Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Uzbekistan and China among those reporting billions in losses; she adds the firm is daily upgrading warehouse security and fire safety, including new fire brigades and extinguishing systems. Port War and Food/ Fuel Links: Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign is shifting toward commercial ports, grain terminals and oil export facilities, while Russia counters by targeting six commercial ports—raising pressure on both agricultural exports and crude shipments. Belarus-Linked Security Scrutiny: Lithuania is reviewing the residency status of Belarus-linked businessman Andrei Shimanovich after an OCCRP investigation raised concerns about mobile apps’ data flows and infrastructure. Agriculture Mobilization: Belarus Defence Minister Viktar Khrenin says procedures are being worked out to draft or train underperforming agricultural workers and managers after the 2026 harvest push. Energy Market Strain: Reports say Russia is stabilizing fuel supplies partly via imports, including gasoline shipments from Belarus and Kazakhstan, as refinery damage from drone strikes continues to affect output. Logistics Trade Route: Belarusian Railway launched the “Slavic Caravan” rail freight service to Uzbekistan, aiming to open new trade opportunities.